Former President Donald Trump has taken a slight benefit over Vice President Kamala Harris within the betting markets for the 2024 presidential election, with Polymarket giving him a 53.7% to 45.6% lead.
The margin, though slender, marks the primary time Trump has taken the lead since Harris was nominated by the Democratic Occasion after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
As of October 7, greater than $1.4 billion had been wager on the race consequence alone on Polymarket.
“Extra exact than surveys”
General odds from varied platforms additionally present Trump main Harris, together with a projected 281-257 lead within the Electoral Faculty.
These betting developments have sparked debate over their predictive energy, significantly after Tesla CEO Elon Musk endorsed Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania. He additionally highlighted current progress and stated prediction markets are a extra “correct” measure of present voter sentiment.
Musk stated in a social media put up:
“Trump now leads Kamala by 3% in betting markets. Extra correct than polls as a result of actual cash is at stake.”
US courts not too long ago dominated in favor of prediction markets and dominated that betting on main political occasions like presidential elections was authorized, offering vital momentum to platforms providing such markets.
Nevertheless, as election day approaches, political analysts are warning towards over-reliance on betting markets, which, whereas reflecting present sentiment, aren’t resistant to modifications within the newest minute.
Bitcoin Outlook
A current report from Bernstein instructed that Bitcoin might attain between $80,000 and $90,000 if Trump wins, due to his assist for digital property and his promise to strengthen the USA as a frontrunner within the crypto business .
Alternatively, a victory for Harris might see Bitcoin buying and selling between $30,000 and $40,000, reflecting his extra cautious stance in direction of the sector.
In the meantime, Commonplace Chartered has predicted a Bitcoin rally no matter who wins, though the financial institution predicts a bigger improve – as much as $125,000 – if Trump takes workplace, in comparison with $75,000 underneath Harris. This sentiment is echoed throughout the crypto business, with many anticipating a extra favorable regulatory setting underneath Trump.
Trump's insurance policies, together with aggressive tax cuts, are anticipated to balloon the nationwide deficit, additional growing inflation and growing Treasury yields. Analysts counsel this might create an ideal storm for Bitcoin's development, positioning it as a hedge towards inflation and market uncertainty.
